January 12, 2026 RedFM Interview Discussing Current and Future Canadian Immigration Policy Trends

Analysis of Current and Future Canadian Immigration Policy Trends

This discussion between Rishi Nagar, News Director of RedFM Calgary and Raj Sharma KC, immigration lawyer and partner at Stewart Sharma Harsanyi, provides a critical analysis of the Canadian immigration system, focusing on the challenges and evolution of the Parents and Grandparents Program (PGP), the increasing difficulties within economic streams like the Startup Visa, and the strategic policy shift towards prioritizing French-speaking applicants, which is interpreted as an indirect method to manage the high volume of Indian applicants. The conversation concludes with a pessimistic outlook for prospective immigrants leading up to 2026, citing significant hurdles with work permit extensions and program access.

The State of Family Class Immigration: PGP and Alternatives

This section examines the historical and current status of the Parents and Grandparents Program (PGP). Draws have been curtailed to those Expressions of Interest in the pool since 2020. The program’s history shows a shift from a predictable, albeit slow, “first-in, first-out” paper-based system to an online expression of interest model that uses random selection, a change that has left many feeling disappointed. Historically, prior to 2011, the old system allowed applicants to wait 6-8 years with a clear outcome, a model many preferred over the current uncertainty, despite criticisms of its lengthy processing times. The Harper government suspended family class processing in 2011, introducing the Super Visa, which initially had an intake of 5,000 per year, later increasing to 7,500. While the pool has decreased over the past half-decade, there will be no intake for the program for this year.

Alternatives for family reunification are also becoming increasingly limited. The Super Visa remains an option, but other pathways, such as Humanitarian and Compassionate (H&C) applications, are facing severe constraints. According to the government’s website, H&C applications now have processing times a decade, and the number of accepted applications is being significantly reduced. Raj Sharma, emphasizes that these “doors are closing” and that a successful H&C claim requires a “special” and compelling case. This trend, combined with increased processing times for H&C, severely restricts viable options for family sponsorship. 

Emerging Security-Based Application Barriers

This section highlights a specific and concerning trend where immigration applications are being rejected due to security concerns linked to an applicant’s past service in certain foreign agencies. Raj Sharma notes that this is a notable development affecting individuals who served with the Indian Army, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir, as well as those with experience in the Punjab Police during the late 1980s and early 1990s. This represents a significant and targeted barrier within the immigration system based on security screening and an applicant’s professional history.

Challenges and Failures within Economic Immigration Programs

The interview also provided context regarding the significant issues plaguing specific economic immigration streams, particularly the Startup Visa program. Despite being a very small program with a backlog of only 5,000 applications, it has been plagued by disproportionately long processing times. While many applied through incubators and pilot streams, the program has “never really worked” and was eventually suspended. The discussion also touches on other small-scale initiatives, like the accelerated pathway for H-1B visa holders, which are characterized as having a very limited scope and impact, with one pilot only involving 1,200 to 1,300 participants. This is set against the backdrop of IRCC’s 2026-2028 immigration levels plan, which aims to prioritize economic immigration to attract the world’s “best talent.”

The Strategic Pivot to Francophone Immigration

The interview also canvassed the Canadian government’s strategic decision to prioritize French-speaking immigrants. Raj Sharma argues that this policy effectively functions as an “informal country cap,” creating a disadvantage for high-human-capital applicants from countries like India. He illustrates this by stating that a highly qualified Indian applicant with a master’s degree and Canadian experience could lose out to a mid-level applicant from Morocco or Senegal simply due to basic French language ability. This policy is framed as a deliberate move to enhance diversity by reducing the overwhelming dominance of applicants from India, which is currently the single largest source country for Canadian immigration. The government’s justification of supporting Francophone minority communities is questioned, as the speaker notes that outside of Quebec, the French-speaking population has decreased over time and no policy initiative was thought of prior to the recent challenges. 

Future Outlook: Predictions for Immigration up to 2026

The interview concludes with a largely pessimistic forecast for the Canadian immigration landscape through 2026. Raj Sharma predicts a difficult period, referring to it as “Gardish,” particularly for temporary residents seeking permanence. The primary obstacles identified are the increasing difficulty in obtaining Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) extensions and the fact that LMIAs are not being issued easily, making them impossible to secure in some cases and thus extensions of work permits will be challenging. While there may be some hope for those with status from 2027, 2028 or later the period leading up to 2026 is expected to be challenging. Furthermore, it is anticipated that any future Temporary Resident to Permanent Resident (TR to PR) pathway will be far more restrictive than the one implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic. A future program is unlikely to be broad-based; instead, it will likely target a limited number of applicants in high-demand sectors like healthcare and trades through category-based draws, likely excluding those working in common fields such as retail, hospitality, or administration.