2025 in Review: A Year of Profound Shifts in Canada’s Immigration Landscape – and What Lies Ahead
The end of the year is a natural inflection point; looking back towards the year that was and looking forward to the year that is to come. After 20 years of practice in this area, it is clear that this past year was a significant one in terms of immigration developments. As 2025 draws to a close, Canada’s immigration regime stands at a crossroads, marked by rapid policy reversals, heightened enforcement priorities, and tangible demographic consequences. The year has seen the system strain under the weight of prior high intake levels (the Trudeau Decade will reverberate for many years to come), leading to abrupt adjustments that have reshaped pathways for permanent and temporary residents alike. This era of turbulence underscores a pivot where system integrity and enforcement increasingly take precedence over expansive facilitation.
The pressures have been both internal and external. Record application volumes and backlogs persisted into the early part of the year, compounded by evolving domestic priorities around housing, healthcare, and economic sustainability. The heretofore positive sentiment held by the majority of Canadians towards robust immigration has vanished along with Justin Trudeau’s exit from the highest office of this country. The Federal Court is straining under ‘extraordinary’ demand and Chief Justice Crampton who was at the helm for more than a decade retired at the tail end of the year. Externally, Canada’s close ties to global dynamics – including influence from its southern neighbour – have contributed to a more cautious stance on borders and inflows. This caution as it were is not restricted to this country but can be found in many peer countries.
The ‘influence’ as it were from our southern neighbour or more precisely the administration in power at the moment and for the next 3 years has had manifold consequence including interest on the part of some Canadians to revoke the citizenship of Elon Musk, a first generation Canadian born outside Canada to a Canadian born parent.
In that vein, an outlier to the storm of enforcement is Bill C-3, passed December 15, 2025, which removes the first-generation limit for citizenship by descent, allowing more Canadians born abroad to pass citizenship to their kids, provided the Canadian parent lived in Canada for three years before the child’s birth/adoption. This facilitative change may well lead to unintended consequences in the future if a recent experience by the UK in advocating for the release of their own national with tenuous connection to the country is any guide.
A sharpened focus on enforcement is evident in ongoing legislative efforts, such as the proposed Strengthening Canada’s Immigration System and Borders Act (Bill C-12), which aims to equip the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) with expanded tools for inspections, information sharing, and addressing threats like precursor chemicals for illicit drugs. It also introduces measures to curb perceived abuses in the asylum system, including ineligibility for certain claims and streamlined processing. The cynic will see parallels to past legislative efforts like the Deporting Foreign Criminals Faster Act or the Balanced Refugee Reform Act from years gone by.
This enforcement tilt manifests in unexpected program changes that catch applicants off guard. One example is Ontario’s abrupt suspension in November 2025 of its fast-track skilled trades stream under the Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program (OINP), following evidence of systemic fraud and misrepresentation. Approximately 2,600 applicants were left in limbo, with applications cancelled and protests ensuing, highlighting the human cost of sudden shifts (Globe and Mail coverage; CBC report on applicant impacts). Another example of enforcement action was the “raid” by CBSA on a major construction site here in Calgary.
Broader federal policy has maintained a tight grip, with permanent resident targets frozen and temporary resident admissions slashed significantly – including halving international student intakes. Canada also cancelled intake for both the Start -Up Visa program and paused the Home Care Worker pilots. As noted in RBC Economics’ analysis, these steps signal a deliberate cooling of growth.
The demographic fallout became undeniable in the third quarter of 2025, when Canada’s population declined by 76,068 people – the first quarterly decrease outside the pandemic era and the largest on record in decades. Driven primarily by outflows of non-permanent residents exceeding inflows, this marks a reversal from the explosive growth of prior years. While many view this contraction as a welcome correction to ease pressures on infrastructure and services, it carries potential adverse economic impacts, including slower labour force expansion and challenges for sectors reliant on immigrant talent.
This year was also notable for the change in policy towards international students (note the aforementioned halving of intake). Refusals are way up, and many are choosing not to come at all. There will be manifold downstream consequences. One outcome that was predictable was the layoffs and program cuts; however more than 10,000 Ontario college staff got laid off this summer and more than 600 programs were cancelled or suspended.
Amid this turbulence, numbers alone fail to capture the human narratives: dreams deferred or shattered as applicants collide with unyielding barriers, with a few navigating narrow paths to enter or remain, while many confront the end of their journey in Canada. For the recalcitrant few who refuse to depart, a strengthened CBSA stands ready, armed with inadmissibility provisions under the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act (IRPA), enforcing removal and compliance. Indeed, Canada is deporting nearly 400 individuals every week, the highest number in a decade.
Despite pervasive media narratives and occasional scapegoating of newcomers by politicians and the public, the reality remains that the vast majority of those seeking status in Canada are truthful, law-abiding individuals with no improper associations or criminal behaviour. They are healthy, financially self-sufficient, and contribute meaningfully to society, embodying perseverance and integrity. However, a minority face allegations of offences, misrepresentation, or inadmissibility on security, medical, or financial grounds – though not all arise from culpability; some stem from circumstance, misunderstanding, or miscommunication. It is also true that many need to leave, whether as failed refugee claimants or as temporary residents that were unable (many through no fault of their own) to navigate the system to PR status.
As always, Officers’ discretion plays a pivotal role, with approaches varying from facilitative to enforcement-oriented (the balance it appears leaning heavily towards the latter). While an ordinary refusal may cause limited prejudice, an inadmissibility finding can have devastating, long-term consequences. It is this latter ground of refusal that will increase given the shift in focus from integration/settlement to enforcement. An allegation or finding of inadmissibility is not necessarily the end; remedies exist, including satisfying an officer of concerns expressed by way of a procedural fairness letter (PFL), to seeking rehabilitation, temporary resident permits (TRPs), humanitarian and compassionate considerations (although with the posted decade processing time this remedy may well now be illusory), authorizations to return (subject to significant officer discretion), stays of removal, and ministerial relief (another remedy perhaps more illusory than real). In an environment of tightening policies and unpredictable shifts, skilled navigation of these options will be more critical than ever.
As legal representatives, our role is to guide clients through this complexity, advocate vigorously, and ensure fairness prevails amid sweeping discretion. Looking ahead to 2026, further changes loom – from continued reductions in temporary residents to potential implementation of border-strengthening measures – in a system that remains very much in flux.